From the Global Investment Department, Mintiply Capital
From our headquarters in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), the world’s economic currents are uniquely visible. It is a vantage point that sits at the nexus of capital where Western markets, Asian growth engines, and the ambitious economies of the Gulf converge. This global perspective is the foundation of our investment philosophy.
As we look toward Summer 2025, the consensus view from traditional financial centers appears dangerously complacent. The prevailing narrative anticipates a soft landing and a gentle return to the norms of the last decade. Our analysis points to a profoundly different reality.
“The market is using a map from a world that no longer exists,” notes Hasnae Taleb, our Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer. “What’s coming isn’t a synchronized global cycle. It’s a Great Divergence – a forceful re-pricing of assets, geographies, and entire business models. This divergence will define the investment landscape for the next five years, and how we position for it today will determine our success tomorrow.”
This article outlines Mintiply Capital’s official house view for the year ahead. It is a thesis built not on hope, but on a clear-eyed assessment of capital flows, energy realities, and the irreversible fractures in the old world order.
A World Re-Pricing Risk
Our department’s analysis reveals that the market is misinterpreting three fundamental global shifts, creating significant risk and opportunity.
- Interest Rates & The Tyranny of the Dollar: The “higher for longer” rate environment is more than a central bank policy – it is a global economic reality. While many focus on the direct impact within the US, we see the second-order effects as paramount. A persistently strong US dollar acts as a global tightening mechanism, exporting inflation and destabilizing economies reliant on dollar-denominated debt. For commodity-backed regions like the Gulf, this is a structural tailwind. For many others, it’s a hurricane.
- Energy, Not CPI, Is the True Inflation Story: We believe Western analysts, focused on core inflation metrics, are underestimating the structural persistence of energy-driven price pressures. From our vantage point, OPEC+ production discipline is a long-term strategy to establish a higher floor for oil prices. When combined with relentless demand growth from industrializing Asia, the notion that energy will cease to be a primary inflationary force is, in our view, deeply flawed.
- The End of Frictionless Trade: The era of seamless globalization is over. Geopolitical conflicts and strategic rivalries are forcing a costly but opportunity-rich realignment of global supply chains. Our thesis is that this “friend-shoring” trend represents the most significant capital expenditure cycle of our generation. It is inflationary and complex, but for investors, it creates a clear roadmap. Capital is no longer chasing the cheapest point of production; it is chasing security, resilience, and proximity.
“The Great Divergence”
These powerful macro forces lead to our firm’s central thesis for 2025. We are exiting an era of synchronized growth, where passive index investing was a winning strategy by default.
We are entering The Great Divergence.
In this environment, broad, passive market exposure will likely disappoint. The S&P 500 is not “the market”; it is a single, concentrated bet on one country’s economy. True outperformance in a diverging world will demand active, globally-aware asset selection. Success will be found by differentiating between the economies, sectors, and companies on the right side of these structural shifts and avoiding those on the wrong side.
Our Positioning: The Winners of the Divergence
Our positioning for this new paradigm is focused on tangible, real-world assets and the essential industries that support them.
1. Energy & The “Transition Enablers”:
Our approach to energy is holistic. “The world needs more energy of all forms, period,” says Ms. Taleb. “The winning strategy is to own the entire value chain.” A high floor for traditional energy prices will generate immense cash flow for best-in-class producers. Concurrently, the global energy transition requires a historic build-out of new infrastructure.
We are positioned in premier traditional energy producers, LNG and pipeline operators, and the critical industrial companies providing the copper, grid technology, and engineering for the transition. This is a strategy to own both the present and the future of global energy.
2. Global Industrials & Strategic Logistics:
We see immense value in the picks and shovels of the new global economy. The reconfiguration of supply chains away from single points of failure is creating new industrial champions in Mexico, India, Southeast Asia, and here in the Middle East.
We are identifying specialized robotics and automation firms, global shipping lines with exposure to new trade corridors, and the developers of industrial real estate in these strategic new hubs.
3. “Real Asset” Havens:
In an inflationary and uncertain world, capital will seek refuge in tangible value. Leading sovereign wealth funds are allocating unprecedented capital to assets that provide inflation protection and stable cash flows. We believe private investors should follow this lead.
Our definition of real assets is modern: data centers (the physical backbone of AI), logistics hubs, critical public-private infrastructure projects, and key agricultural commodities. These are assets that cannot be devalued by a printing press.
Risks We Are Avoiding: The “Synchronized Squeeze”
Just as The Great Divergence creates clear winners, our framework identifies sectors facing significant headwinds.
1. “Cash-Burn” Technology:
The speculative darlings of the zero-interest-rate policy (ZIRP) era face a brutal reckoning. As Hasnae Taleb often says, “For a decade, a good story was more valuable than a positive cash flow. That game is over.” Without access to cheap capital, unprofitable companies will face a funding cliff.
We are avoiding technology companies with no clear path to profitability. The AI revolution is real, but its rewards will be concentrated among a few well-capitalized leaders.
2. Developed Market Consumer Discretionary:
We believe the consumer in the US and Europe is more fragile than headline numbers suggest. The combination of sticky inflation and high borrowing costs will erode discretionary spending power.
We are cautious on companies that rely on non-essential consumer spending, from fast fashion to high-end hospitality, where we expect significant margin pressure.
3. Debt-Laden “Zombie” Companies:
The ghosts of the last economic cycle are about to be exorcised. A wave of defaults is inevitable as companies that only survived by refinancing cheap debt are forced to contend with normalized interest rates.
We are rigorously scrutinizing balance sheets. In this environment, high leverage is a liability that we are actively avoiding.
Our Guiding Principle for 2025
At Mintiply Capital, our strategy is guided by a simple but powerful observation from our CIO, Hasnae Taleb:
“For the last fifteen years, the only address that mattered was Wall Street. For the next decade, you will need a global atlas. Capital will flow to where it is treated best, and right now, that is to real assets, energy security, and the strategic regions rewiring the world’s supply chains, not to last cycle’s speculative fantasies.”
This is the map we are using to navigate The Great Divergence. In a world of profound change, we believe a global, pragmatic, and active approach is not just an advantage, it is a necessity.